Expected Value for Chuck-a-Luck

Chuck-a-Luck is a game of chance. Three dice are rolled, sometimes in a wire frame. Due to this frame, this game is also called birdcage. This game is more often seen in carnivals rather than casinos. However, due to the use of random dice, we can use probability to analyze this game. More specifically we can calculate the expected value of this game. Wagers There are several types of wagers that are possible to bet on. We will only consider the single number wager. On this wager we simply choose a specific number from one to six. Then we roll the dice. Consider the possibilities. All of the dice, two of them, one of them or none could show the number that we have chosen. Suppose that this game will pay the following: $3 if all three dice match the number chosen.$2 if exactly two dice match the number chosen.$1 if exactly one of the dice matches the number chosen. If none of the dice matches the number chosen, then we must pay $1. What is the expected value of this game? In other words, in the long run how much on average would we expect to win or lose if we played this game repeatedly? Probabilities In order to find the expected value of this game we need to determine four probabilities. These probabilities correspond to the four possible outcomes. We note that each die is independent of the others. Due to this independence, we use the multiplication rule. This will help us in determining the number of outcomes. We also assume that the dice are fair. Each of the six sides on each of the three dice is equally likely to be rolled. There are 6 x 6 x 6 216 possible outcomes from rolling these three dice. This number will be the denominator for all of our probabilities. There is one way to match all three dice with the number chosen. There are five ways for a single die to not match our chosen number. This means that there are 5 x 5 x 5 125 ways for none of our dice to match the number that was chosen. If we consider exactly two of the dice matching, then we have one die that does not match. There are 1 x 1 x 5 5 ways for the first two dice to match our number and the third to be different.There are 1 x 5 x 1 5 ways for the first and third dice to match, with the second be different.There are 5 x 1 x 1 5 ways for the first die to be different and for the second and third to match. This means that there is a total of 15 ways for exactly two dice to match. We now have calculated the number of ways to obtain all but one of our outcomes. There are 216 rolls possible. We have accounted for 1 15 125 141 of them. This means that there are 216 -141 75 remaining. We collect all of the above information and see: The probability our number matches all three dice is 1/216.The probability our number matches exactly two dice is 15/216.The probability our number matches exactly one die is 75/216.The probability our number matches none of the dice is 125/216. Expected Value We are now ready to calculate the expected value of this situation. The formula for expected value requires us to multiply the probability of each event by the net gain or loss if the event occurs. We then add all of these products together. The calculation of the expected value is as follows: (3)(1/216) (2)(15/216) (1)(75/216) (-1)(125/216) 3/216 30/216 75/216 -125/216 -17/216 This is approximately -$0.08. The interpretation is that if we were to play this game repeatedly, on average we would lose 8 cents each time that we played.

Essay on Acanthaster planci on the Great Barrier Reef

Acanthaster planci on the Great Barrier Reef The organism Acanthaster planci, commonly known as the crown of thorns starfish, has a drastic effect on the health of coral reefs all over the world, including the Great Barrier Reef of Australia. This poisonous echinoderm feeds upon the coral, and although this should be a healthy and natural part of the ecosystem, the population explosions of the starfish have caused devastation in many portions of the Great Barrier Reef. Reef sections take anywhere from ten to fifteen years to recover, and some never recover completely with the same species distribution. The starfish outbreaks seem to travel southward down the reef with the two primary outbreaks reported in the last 40 years both†¦show more content†¦Population explosions, or outbreaks, of the starfish occurring over the past 30 to 35 years have caused concern because of A. planci predation of the coral. An outbreak of the starfish can devastate a reef. The scientific community has so far been unable to pinpoint a specif ic cause for these outbreaks. Some suggest that the population explosions are natural phenomena that have occurred for thousands of years. However, others believe that the outbreaks are a recent occurrence caused by human interference in the reefs, mainly human elimination of starfish predators. Currently, methods of starfish control, possible causes of outbreaks, and general starfish biology are being vigorously researched in hopes that a solution to the problem will come to light. Physical Biology Acanthaster planci is an echinoderm of the class Asteroidea. An adult organism may grow anywhere from 25 to 35 cm in diameter with the largest recorded individual being 80 cm. The organism’s size is dependent on what it eats, availability of food, and the number of other starfish in the population. The arms of a starfish make up the bulk of its diameter. Most A. planci have between 14 and 18 arms. Its arms may be lost to predators or shed when the organism is stressed but can be regrown within 5 to 6 months (Moran, 1997). The arms are supported by a complex skeleton of ossicles which have projections forming protective spines (Head et al. 1989). EachShow MoreRelatedClimate Change and Global Warming1074 Words   |  5 Pagesevidence to support this hypothesis. The dilemma becomes whether we can limit the damage and adapt to a new status quo or not. Rising sea levels and the damage caused by this phenomenon has irreversible impacts on coastlines worldwide. Damage to sensitive r eef systems cannot be fixed. This also has permanent impacts of the ecology not just of those immediate areas but also the ocean as a whole. 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British Steel by Judas Priest free essay sample

The British Steel album by Judas Priest is fast, exciting, and focused on the idea of living why you can. Alibet, the band abandons the darker themes they had previously created through past albums, it keeps the interest sparked with the lyrics and the great sound. Its the music that creates the feel of being alive, and it gets the adrenaline pumping. The song Breaking the Law has created an amazing opening to the album. The fast paced song makes the band seem a little more on the edge. United and Living After Midnight are also some of the more extraordinary songs as they represent the more fun filled part of the album. Around the time this album was being made one of the band members was actually gay and getting ready to tell the world, only being different was not yet accepted. Not only was it their first song to be written by current members of the band, but it also featured their amazing drummer Dave Holland. We will write a custom essay sample on British Steel by Judas Priest or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page The musicality and chemistry between the band members is evident through these songs as the lead singer Al Atkins and the guitarists compliment each other as the drums in the background match each other beautifully. Although the band members are not the original members of the band, Judas Priest manages to stay true to their rock and roll nature.

Public rhetoric creates a society in which truth comes a poor second to propagand Essay Example

Public rhetoric creates a society in which truth comes a poor second to propagand Paper Rhetoric has been defined and analysis in different ways, therefore to study the role of rhetoric in society it is important first to define the term itself. Rhetoric according to the dictionary is the Art of effective or persuasive speech or writing1. Farrell defines rhetoric as the collaborative art of addressing and guiding decision and judgement2 and suggests it is a public language3 for successful cultures. Rhetoric therefore means the art of using language to persuade or influence the human subject. It is usually applied to persuasive attempts directed at an audience, often in some formal or institutional setting.4 Rhetoric plays a huge role in influencing public opinion therefore in order to confront the idea that Public rhetoric creates a society in which truth comes a poor second to propaganda it is important first to outline the meaning of the two terms Truth and Propaganda. The dictionary suggests a broad definition of the word truth: Truth- Quality or state of being true5, this definition however, does not give a substantial enough meaning of the word. Truth is something that you believe to be right, a testing of ideas that are believed to be reliable. This is my own definition of truth, which I believe outlines what truth constitutes of. We will write a custom essay sample on Public rhetoric creates a society in which truth comes a poor second to propagand specifically for you for only $16.38 $13.9/page Order now We will write a custom essay sample on Public rhetoric creates a society in which truth comes a poor second to propagand specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer We will write a custom essay sample on Public rhetoric creates a society in which truth comes a poor second to propagand specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer Jowett and ODonnell define propaganda as means to disseminate or promote particular ideas6 the definition goes further in explaining that Propaganda is the deliberate and systematic attempt to shape perceptions, manipulate cognitions, and direct behaviour to achieve a response that furthers the desired intent of the propagandist7. This definition of propaganda focuses on the communicative process and most specifically the purpose of the process, the purpose being to send out an ideology to an audience with a related objective. My own perception of propaganda, in its most neutral sense, is that propaganda is a set of ideas put out politically. This essay will consider the way in which public rhetoric can be used for persuasive purposes. Political speech/es and movie speeches will form the basis of my analysis. Talk is often called a speech event. A speech which urges the audience to do, say, feel, or think something8 A speech event is orientated to achieving goals predicated on the existence of an audience and is described by the linguist Hymes as an occurrence of speech within a larger context.9 Political speeches operate within this context. When a speech event takes place it is important to note that what is said is governed by the intention of the speakers within a given context, (both the immediate situation and the wider social context), as well as by the available discourses in the language and the situation in particular. The discourse used will consist of a particular form and content, taken from a set of available discourses. In Tony Blairs speech (July 17,2003) he addresses the U.S Congress in accepting the Congressional Gold Medal. The speech is given in a formal setting. Blair as a leader has authority and his authority is acknowledged by his followers or sub-ordinates, this assembly of such individuals create the appropriate conditions of speech making, however, Blair is not only addressing these individuals but also the electronic public sphere, so his speech becomes for public consumption. The speech opens with a direct address to Mr. Speaker, Mr. Vice President (and the) honorable members of Congress. The audiences both locally present and listening to the broadcast are also being addressed in this speech. The prime minister first shows respect for the status of the distinguished individuals, then later cleverly reduces them all to the common level of citizens of the great republic making them all seem equal. We were all reared on battles between great warriors, between great nations, between powerful forces and ideologies that dominated entire continents. Immediate uses of rhetorical devices are evident in this statement. Here we witness, the employment of the inclusive we along with the repetition of the word between to emphasise his points. The use of the personal pronoun we attempts to position the audience, the idea being that this type of address attempts to represent the interests and opinions of Blair and audience as identical. Public speaking attempts to position its audience (Atkinson, 1984) Therefore there is a strong link between language and power, what is being said is related to Blairs power as Prime Minister. Blair affiliates himself with his primary audience the U.S Congress aswell his secondary audience the public. Within the first few lines of the speech we see the uses of antithetic parallelism. The first antithesis is in a notbut structure. by showing them (service men and women) and their families that they did not strive or die in vain, but that through their sacrifice future generations can live in greater peace, prosperity and hope. Here we witness assertion, an example of contrast or juxtaposition and an affiliation with the public expressed with the use of families. All writing and texts make references to the world that we know and Blair too does this in his speech: Through the troubled times since September 11th changed our world, we have been allies and friends September 11 was not an isolated event, but a tragic prologue From this statement we get reference to the accepted existence of certain events. All writing or text depends on pre-existing themes to make its point. (Barker, 1989) Blair later addresses themes about terrorism. The Prime-Minister voices his opinions openly and is interested in colloquial language, sympathetic circularity and the habit of speaking from experience. He presents himself as a reasonably ordinary person and talks about his son. Actually, you know, my middle son was studying 18th century history and the American war of Independence Here we witness, the use of colloquial language you know and yet another form of identification with the public. The lexis of the speech comes from everyday speech, there are no specialists or obscure terms and most sentences are simple structurally, this therefore allows an easier understanding in the audience. He then goes on to talk about belief: In the end it is not our power alone that will defeat this evil. Our ultimate weapon is not our guns, but our beliefs Belief is a firm conviction in the existence or rightness of something, however this differs from position. The belief of a politician and the expression of that belief differentiate greatly. What Blair says is not necessarily what he believes. However, all politicians are aware that they have to act in a particular context bearing in mind the welfare and well being of an audience. All social actors have goals, make moves, take turns, employ tactics and work out strategies (Nofsinger, 1991) He continues: There is a myth that though we love freedom, others dont; that our attachment to freedom is a product of our culture; that freedom, democracy, human rights, the rule of law are American values, or Western values; that afghan women were content under the lash of the Taliban; that Saddam was somehow beloved by his people; that Milosevic was Serbias savior The key word here is freedom. Freedom can be economical, cultural or political, in this sense he talks about Freedom for all, not just for those in a western society. Ours are not western values; they are the universal values of human spirit. And anywhereAnywhere, anytime ordinary people are given the chance to choose, the choice is the same: freedom, not tyranny; democracy, not dictatorship; the rule of law; not the rule of the secret police. Here he presents a series of oppositions and makes use of contrast to put his point across. His points consist of a three part list and include the repetition of anywhere emphasizing the idea that freedom is a universal value and can be present anywhere in the world. He uses further parallelisms to get his point across: The spread of freedom is the best security for the free. It is our last line of defense and our first line of attack. And just as the terrorist seeks to divide humanity in hate, so we have to unify it around an idea. And that idea is liberty. In other words, in oppositional terms, the terrorists attack and divide and the allies (Britain and America) defend and unify. This could be described as what Jowett and ODonnell call White propaganda. White propaganda is when the source is identified correctly and the information in the message tends to be accurateAlthough what listeners hear is reasonably close to the truth, it is presented in the manner that attempts to convince the audience that the sender is the good guy with the best ideas and political ideology.10 Each speaker has a purpose; Blair for example, has the purpose of increasing the morale of the British and American people after or throughout the war on terror. Politicians have a tendency to use the word freedom vastly in the public arena, both in speeches and party election broadcasts. Blairs speech is built around a tired clichà ¯Ã‚ ¿Ã‚ ½- the importance of freedom, the need for it, how other cherished values depend on it and how it will triumph. This is his way of justifying the war in Iraq. He concludes his talk on freedom with the words of Abraham Lincoln: We must find the strength to fight for this idea and the compassion to make it universal. Abraham Lincoln said Those that deny freedom to others deserve it not for themselves and it is this sense of justice that makes moral love a liberty The speech is bombarded with references to freedom and being free. Rhetorical questions, assertions, three part lists and contrast and juxtaposition are present throughout the speech till its end, and these are all common features of public rhetoric. Some of the most famous examples of public rhetoric have been produced by military leaders preparing troops for battle. These speeches, both real and fictitious, usually demonstrate the great motivating power of what Aristotle calls pathos. Pathos (emotional proof) is the feeling the speech draws from the hearers. In the film Braveheart (1995) the scene in which William Wallace addresses the Scottish Army at Stirling provides such a speech. Wallace establishes his credentials and introduces himself. He then goes on to address the idea of freedom: You have come to fight as free men, and free men you are. What would you do without freedom, will you fight? He uses the personal pronoun you to address the whole collective. The basic difference between Blairs speech and Wallaces speech is that Blair talks about making freedom a universal theme as many countries do not have it. Wallace speaks of freedom in a patriotic manner. They may take our lives, but theyll never take our freedom. In this context, the soldiers answer back and have the right to speak-one of the key concepts of freedom. In a political context, only the speaker expresses his beliefs and ideas and the audience is positioned in a way to accept these beliefs and ideas imposed on them. The movie scene in which General Maximus Meridius addresses Caesar Commodus in the film Gladiator (2000) provides another example of Rhetoric in movie speeches. My name is Maximus Decimus Meridius, Commander of the Armies of the North, General of the Felix Legions, loyal servant to the true emperor, Marcus Aurelius, father to a murdered son, husband to a murdered wife, and I will have my vengeance in this life-or the next11 The speech begins with a formal mode of address; he introduces himself and creates an assertion. He then goes on to assert his authority, Commander; General; loyal servant; Father and Husband are all terms or names linked with authority. The second, third and fourth assertion consist of a three part list reiterating his authority, however his fifth, sixth and seventh assertions express an undesired state of affairs. His wife and child have been murdered and he wants his revenge. In this short address a narrative is established, which consists of a storyline used by the storyteller. The themes which emerge most clearly in the course of the narrative concern masculinity, power, heroism and the nature of group leadership. Narrative should not be seen as simply a fictional practice, as human beings report everyday events and encounters in the form of narrative. Central to the study of rhetoric is the audience. Responses to persuasion Conclusion/s In addressing the idea that Public rhetoric creates a society in which truth comes a poor second to propaganda I conclude that public rhetoric has both a positive and negative condition to it in society. In Blairs speech there is a sincere concern for the welfare of the audience. Certain ideas and messages are selected by him and imposed on the audience, this does, therefore mean that the selection of this information is biased as he chooses what to tell the audience and what to keep from them, however Blair does not use rhetoric in a negative, manipulative or dishonest way, he simply uses persuasive techniques to get his point across. In his Nichomachean Ethics, Aristotle, with regard to persuasion indicated that a crafty person could artfully manipulate the instruments of rhetoric for either honest or dishonest terms. Depending upon which end is desired, the use of rhetorical devices is judged accordingly: ifthe aim be good, the cleverness is praiseworthy; but if it be bad, it becomes craft.12 A speaker faced with having to articulate a message on a public platform e.g. Tony Blair with the knowledge that it would gain a wider circulation, would perhaps be more circumspect in his subject matter or address. More Importantly, Blair might frame the message using a rhetorical construction as I have shown. Propaganda is a form of communication that is different from persuasion because it attempts to achieve a response that furthers the desired intent of the propagandist. Blairs message is not that of propaganda. To identify as message as propaganda is to suggest something negative and dishonest, words frequently used as synonyms for propaganda are lies, distortion, deceit, manipulation and brainwashing. Many of these synonyms are suggestive of techniques of message production rather than purpose or process. Blairs purpose is to keep the interests and well being of the public audience at heart, he does not lie or distort information, however he may hide the truth from us in places are he believes it is for the best. No audience, no matter how perverse in its own needs, will put up with hearing that they are being manipulated and used to fulfill anothers selfish needs. Thus the propagandist cannot reveal the true intent of the message. 13 However, as Althusser argues the media are ideological state apparatus; they produce meanings in the audience. The voice of the author in a novel, speech, advertisement or television program guides us through, the text or story; therefore it is not necessarily true as we as readers are not allowed to align ourselves with a particular character, person, and situation. In Blairs speech, what you see on the surface does not necessarily tell you about the truth of the world. There are structures that you cant see for example, the economic status, political status or public relations between classes and races. We are colored by dominant ideology which influences our beliefs and ideas; so on the other hand, manipulation can be seen as an instrument of ideology. In comparison to Blairs speech, the speeches in the examples given, although fictitious, rhetoric is used in a positive retrospect as both characters do not try to manipulate their audiences but try to persuade them.

John Jay-(Chief Justice U.S) Essays - John Jay,

John Jay-(Chief Justice U.S) John Jay was born on December 12, 1745 in New York City. He was a descendant of early Huguenot and patrician Dutch settlers, who grew up in a comfortable home. He graduated from King's college in 1764 and four years later he began his career as a lawyer. John Jay married Sarah Van Brugh Livingston on April 28, 1774. John Jay was a distinguished statesman and was known as a respected political figure due to his judgement, fairness, and ability to make decisions that he felt were right but were not always popular. After being accepted as a lawyer, Jay later became a New York delegate to the First and Second Continental Congresses. There he served as president from 1778 to 1779. Following his term as president, Jay was appointed as U.S minister to Spain. After he returned to the United States, he was informed that he had been chosen as secretary of foreign affairs. While working with the European congresses Jay came to realize that the U.S needed a stronger central government. Along with Alexander Hamilton and James Madison, Jay wrote letters to newspapers to urge the ratification of the constitution. In 1789 John Jay was appointed chief justice of the United States by President George Washington. While he was chief justice he traveled to Great Britain to attempt to negotiate settlements of the issues between the two nations. In 1794 George Washington made his last desperate attemt to avoid war when he decided to send John Jay to London. The Jeffersonians were not pleased with this decision. They feared that such a well-known federalist and Britain-lover would "sell out" his country. After his arrival in London, Jay further alarmed the Jeffersonians when at the presentation ceremony he kissed the queen's hand. An American Journal wrote about the so-called betrayal of John Jay to his country, "Hear the voice of truth, hear and believe! John Jay, ah! the arch traitor--seize him, drown him, hang him, burn him, flay him alive! Men of America, he betrayed you with a kiss!" Upon his return to the United States, Jay resigned from his position as chief justice to serve as governor of New York and served two terms. In 1801 he refused further public office and retired to his Bedford, N.Y home, where he died on May 17, 1829. He was one of the last of the revolutionary patriarchs. Many of the procedures adopted by John Jay in his lifetime are still used in todays judicial body.

Free Essays on Two American Heroes (Martin Luther King And Malcolm X)

and threats to make a difference, Martin Luther King Jr. used inspiration and suggested solutions. He encouraged peaceful non-violent demonstrations. â€Å"In the process gaining our rightful place, we must not be guilty of wrongful deeds,† he cautioned. â€Å"Let us not seek to satisfy our thirst for freedom by drinking from the cup of bitterness and hatred† (349). King also urged his race not to hate the white people, for there were many who fought the cause with them. â€Å"And the marvelous new militancy which has engulfed the Negro community must not lead us to a distrust of all white people,† he says, â€Å"for many of our white brothers, as evidenced by their presence here today, have come to realize that their destiny is tied up with our destiny, and have come to realize that their freedom is inextricably ... Free Essays on Two American Heroes (Martin Luther King And Malcolm X) Free Essays on Two American Heroes (Martin Luther King And Malcolm X) Two American Heroes Whether black or white, when asked about the civil rights movement, two names immediately come into one’s mind; Martin Luther King Jr. and Malcolm X. These two men were icons for the movement and are still remembered today for their powerful speeches and unwavering belief. Martin Luther King Jr. and Malcolm X were two men with very different ideals, who tried to accomplish the same goal, to help their people achieve the dream of equality in a country torn by race. Martin Luther King Jr. was born into a middle-class home in Atlanta on January 15, 1929. He came from a respectable family; his father was a pastor and his mother a former school teacher. Martin was one of three children. King received his bachelor’s degree from Morehouse College in Atlanta. And later, after finishing his coursework at Boston University and studying at Harvard, he attained his doctorate (â€Å"Biography† 1-3). His excellent education was very evident in both his manner and his speeches. King demanded the same equal rights as all African-American activists, however whereas some, such as Malcolm X, used harsh words and threats to make a difference, Martin Luther King Jr. used inspiration and suggested solutions. He encouraged peaceful non-violent demonstrations. â€Å"In the process gaining our rightful place, we must not be guilty of wrongful deeds,† he cautioned. â€Å"Let us not seek to satisfy our thirst for freedom by drinking from the cup of bitterness and hatred† (349). King also urged his race not to hate the white people, for there were many who fought the cause with them. â€Å"And the marvelous new militancy which has engulfed the Negro community must not lead us to a distrust of all white people,† he says, â€Å"for many of our white brothers, as evidenced by their presence here today, have come to realize that their destiny is tied up with our destiny, and have come to realize that their freedom is inextricably ...

Is Monetary Policy Overburdened Literature review

Is Monetary Policy Overburdened - Literature review Example The monetary policy, today, is not expected to achieve goals it used to achieve before. Unemployment and inflation are speculated to persist if overburdening of the monetary policy continues. Whenever the employment rates suddenly increase, the central bank is forced to print more money for salaries, but, this is not a solution to inflation. During the crisis, central banks focused on price stability and at this time, they became independent institutions dominating the control of inflation without interference from the government. At that time, they achieved their goal in controlling inflation, but in 2008 and 2009, the inflation rate started increasing. The governments doubted on the credibility of central banks in maintaining price stability. Today, most central banks are not independent in their operations and that is why public policies from the government are overburdening the monetary policies. Price stability may not be realized if the public policies continue to overburden the monetary policies posing a threat to economies in the future (Orphanides 2013, p. 2). The monetary policy is aimed at stabilizing the price levels of goods and commodities in accordance with the state of the economy. The global financial crisis incorporated inflation which led to a continued increase in unemployment rates. Governments rushed to reduce their spending and reduce unemployment rates that resulted in overburdening of the monetary policy. The monetary policy has been practiced before and deflation was achieved, and thus, stabilizing the price levels. Before the financial crisis, discussions on what constitutes a good monetary policy run among the major central banks where they agreed on the practice of targeting inflation (Orphanides 2013, p. 2). At the first stages of the global financial crisis, disappointing growth was associated with many economies. The real GDP was maintained in countries like the US, the United Kingdom, and Japan.